China population fell for the third consecutive year in 2024, with a decline of over 1.39 million people, bringing the total population to 1.408 billion, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Friday. Despite a slight increase in births, the long-term demographic challenges facing the country remain a significant concern for its economic future.
Birth Rate Sees Minor Uptick
In 2024, approximately 9.54 million babies were born in China, 520,000 more than in the previous year. This increase is partially attributed to the cultural belief that the Year of the Dragon, considered an auspicious year in the Chinese zodiac, is a favorable time to have children.
Reasons for the Rise in Births:
- Many couples who delayed having children during the three years of the Covid-19 pandemic decided to start families in 2024.
- Cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon encouraged higher birth rates.
However, experts remain cautious about the sustainability of this increase. He Yafu, an independent demographer, predicted a likely decline in the number of newborns in 2025, reflecting the ongoing challenges of reversing China’s declining birth rate.
Challenges to Reversing Population Decline
The annual population drop highlights the Chinese government’s struggles to combat a falling birth rate despite various policy adjustments in recent years.
Key Factors Driving Population Decline:
- Restrictive Family Planning Policies:
Decades of the one-child policy, which was only eased in 2016, contributed significantly to the current demographic imbalance. - Rising Childcare Costs:
High costs of raising children deter many couples from expanding their families, especially in urban areas where living expenses are steep. - Changing Social Norms:
Young couples are increasingly prioritizing careers, personal goals, and financial independence over traditional family-building. - Historical Decline in Birth Rates:
Since the 1960s, China’s birth rate has shown a steady decline, with only temporary increases, such as after the 2016 policy relaxation that allowed couples to have two children.
Long-Term Economic Implications
China’s demographic challenges could have far-reaching consequences for the nation’s economic future.
Key Risks:
- Shrinking Workforce:
A declining population means fewer people entering the workforce, which could slow economic growth and innovation. - Rising Elderly Population:
An aging population increases demand for healthcare and social services, while also straining the already underfunded pension system. - Pressure on Growth:
Fewer working-age individuals to support a growing elderly population could lead to increased financial pressure on younger generations and the government.
Government Initiatives and Challenges
In response to the demographic crisis, the Chinese government has introduced several measures aimed at encouraging couples to have more children:
- Support for Families with Multiple Children:
- Subsidies for housing.
- Expanded access to healthcare.
- Employment assistance for parents.
- Raising Retirement Age:
For the first time since 1978, China announced plans to gradually raise the retirement age to address workforce shortages. However, this decision has faced public opposition.
Despite these measures, achieving significant results remains difficult. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that China’s population could shrink to 1.36 billion by 2035, returning to levels not seen since 2012.
Looking Ahead
China’s declining population presents an urgent need for structural reforms and policy innovations. While recent efforts have aimed to alleviate some of the pressure, sustained improvements in birth rates will require addressing the broader social and economic factors deterring family growth.
Without meaningful intervention, the demographic challenges could severely impact China’s position as a global economic powerhouse in the coming decades.
